In Baker We Trust: OU vs. TCU and Other CFB Conference Championship Previews

All is not well in the sports universes I follow.

Bucs
Julio Jones spent Sunday making the Bucs' defense look like a joke, with 12 catches for 253 yards, and the Atlanta Falcons ran down the Bucs, 34-20. At least Jameis Winston will be back at QB when they head to Green Bay to play the Packers on Sunday. Since Aaron Rodgers is still hurt, that might be a game the Bucs can win. At 4-7, it's probably too late to try and claw back into the playoff picture. I don't know if you want to risk re-injuring Jameis if there's no shot at the playoffs. I'm sure Koetter wants to save his job, but if Jameis gets seriously hurt as a result, Koetter absolutely will be fired for risking the franchise's future.

Thunder
The OK3 inexplicably beat Golden State the night before Thanksgiving (which I admittedly did not expect), then proceeded to resemble the team I thought they were, and lost their third straight game tonight against the Orlando Magic, who broke their own nine-game losing streak. I'm officially on the #FireBillyDonovan train, though I fully acknowledge that it likely won't fix anything on the Thunder if he got canned. Maurice Cheeks won't be an upgrade.

Bolts
Even my hockey team is finally struggling. The Lightning played almost as poorly as the Thunder, but still almost managed to salvage the game against the Boston Bruins, losing 3-2. That's their fourth loss in the last 6 games. Thanks to their strong start, though, they're still 1st in the Eastern Conference by 3 points (1.5 games, for non-NHL people). Unlike the Thunder, they've shown what they're capable of and that they can sustain it. They start a four-game homestand at Amalie Arena in Tampa on Saurday night, so I fully expect them to get right on that stand.

So we now go to what will probably be the main focus of this blog for the next few weeks, and then again around New Year's: the Oklahoma Sooners and the College Football Playoff.

Quick recap of last week:

• Pitt rekindled its 2007 mojo and beat another #2 ranked team to end the season, beating Miami on Black Friday, 24-14. Miami still has a spot in the ACC Championship against Clemson, and can sneak back into the CFP field if they win and get a little help.
  
• OU made West Virginia look ridiculous, as is tradition. Kyler Murray started the game due to Baker Mayfield's "lewdness" against Kansas, and opened the game with a 66-yard run before Rodney Anderson punched it in the end zone. Mayfield came in after that series and threw for 281 yards and 3 TDs, and ran WVU out of Owen Field 59-31. I was out-of-state on Saturday and listening to the game on the radio. I do appreciate Mayfield, Lincoln Riley and Rodney Anderson for ending that game at half, 45-10, just as my dad and I got out of radio range.
  
• The "epic Iron Bowl" turned out to be a mismatch. #6 Auburn beat #1 ranked Alabama, 26-14, and advanced to this weekend's SEC Championship against Georgia, a team they beat a couple of weeks ago, and Ohio State beat Michigan and plays undefeated Wisconsin for the Big Ten title. 

So that sets the stage for last night's rankings, which are below:

1	Clemson	11-1	3
2	Auburn	10-2	6
3	Oklahoma	11-1	4
4	Wisconsin	12-0	5
5	Alabama	11-1	1
6	Georgia	11-1	7
7	Miami (Fla.)	10-1	2
8	Ohio State	10-2	9
9	Penn State	10-2	10
10	USC	10-2	11
11	TCU	10-2	12
12	Stanford	9-3	21
13	Washington	10-2	17
14	UCF	11-0	15
15	Notre Dame	9-3	8
16	Michigan State	9-3	16
17	LSU	9-3	18
18	Washington State	9-3	13
19	Oklahoma State	9-3	19
20	Memphis	10-1	20
21	Northwestern	9-3	22
22	Virginia Tech	9-3	25
23	Mississippi State	8-4	14
24	NC State	8-4	NR
25	Fresno State	9-3	NR

First of all, why is Auburn at #2 with two losses? I get that ESPN gets a commission for putting SEC teams in the playoff, but seriously. Auburn is legitimately a good team, and I could see them at #4, behind OU, Wisconsin and Clemson, in that order, but seriously. Two losses. Two. Two losses. I don't care if one loss was to Clemson, they still have two losses. 

The committee's love affair with Clemson continues to baffle me. Their loss to Syracuse is worse than OU's loss to Iowa State and that's not going to change. 

The committee loves to drag Wisconsin every chance they get. I get they don't have many great wins, with the only still ranked team on their schedule being #21 Northwestern, but they have no bad losses. I don't know how good they really are, but they have a legit argument for being #1 next week if they can beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten.

I mean this, even without bias, that Oklahoma should rightfully be the #1 team in the country right now. Better schedule than Wisconsin so far, they have one loss to Auburn's two, and their one loss looks less horrible than Clemson's one loss. All of this disrespect is only going to aggravate Baker Mayfield and the Sooners, and they're about to take it out on TCU again on Saturday morning. At least, I hope so.

The committee has Alabama at #5 and Georgia at #6 because they're deadset on having two SEC teams in the playoff, come hell or high water. Miami and Ohio State aren't out of the playoff hunt yet, but they'll need to win their conference title games convincingly to upset the apple cart enough to jump the committee's chosen SEC pets.

I feel bad for UCF. They went undefeated against their schedule, including a instant classic on Black Friday, winning 49-42 against USF in the War on I-4. (Really cool rivalry that I don't think most fans outside of Tampa Bay and Orlando are aware of.) The committee thinks they're #14 and aren't even going to let an undefeated team sniff the playoff. Honestly, the schools that aren't in the Power 5 conferences may as well start their own separate division. I don't think UCF could beat any of the teams in the contention for the CFP, but they would deserve the right to try if they beat Memphis in the American Conference championship game.

Anyway, it's conference championship week in college football. I'll pick all of the games for you, and we can see how wrong I am. But first, let's review how I did over Thanksgiving:

Picks

Last week W-L: 4-0

Last week against the spread (ATS): 2-2

Overall W-L: 6-2

Overall ATS: 4-6

Not awful. TCU didn't beat Baylor by enough (although there was a brawl in that game that was amusing), and Washington basically ended Eli Manning's time in New York and won by more than I expected.

(A quick, unrelated note on Eli, but I feel like the Giants have done him wrong. They offered to let him keep starting but told him they were going to get backups Geno Smith and Davis Webb some reps, which I get they need, but then Eli decided to just have them bench him rather than keep up his consecutive starts streak. Good act by him, kinda gutless for Ben McAdoo to throw him under the bus all year like he has.)

Pac-12 Championship: #12 Stanford (9-3) vs #10 USC (10-2)

Friday, 12/1, 5:00 PM PT (7 PM CT; 8 PM ET), Santa Clara, CA

Line: USC -2.5

Stanford's got the hotter team right now, and they get the special fortune of playing their conference championship game 20 minutes away from their campus in northern California. Stanford running back Bryce Love is probably the last guy left that could reasonably steal the Heisman from Baker Mayfield. I don't see that happening, but I think USC QB Sam Darnold is hilariously overrated. It depends on whose defense shows up, but I'd give Stanford the edge.

Stanford 34, USC 28 (Stanford beats the spread)

American Athletic Conference Championship: #20 Memphis (10-1) at #14 UCF (11-0)

Saturday, 12/2, 11:00 AM CT (12 PM ET), Orlando, FL

Line: n/a (if it updates by Saturday, will post it here)

The winner of this game probably gets the coveted New Year's Six bowl berth that the best Group of 5 team gets to have, which I'm sure gives them a lot of comfort, since they won't get to play for a national title. Scott Frost may have corn on his mind, since Nebraska AD Tom Osborne might be waiting in Orlando with a contract outside of the stadium, win or lose. Memphis is really good and beat a couple of decent squads in UCLA and Navy, but their own coach, Mike Norvell, may be heading elsewhere next year as well. It'll be a balmy 81 degrees in Orlando at kickoff (because Florida), and UCF beat Memphis 40-13 in Orlando early in the year. I can't see this rematch going all that differently.

UCF 37, Memphis 31 (no line at this time)

Big 12 Championship: #11 TCU (10-2) vs #3 Oklahoma (11-1)

Saturday, 11:30 AM CT, Arlington, TX

Line: OU -7

OU will basically punch their ticket to the playoff with a win here, but this is basically a TCU home game at Jerry World. I think this time will be closer than when the Horned Frogs came to Norman on November 11, but I don't suspect Mayfield and the Sooners to overlook TCU one bit. They want to come out and make a statement, get to the CFP, and lock up the Heisman for Mayfield. If they take TCU seriously, I think they'll do all of those things. OU and TCU have both been playing really chippy the last few weeks, and I wouldn't be surprised if some kind of fight breaks out. Stay tuned!

Oklahoma 41, TCU 31 (OU covers)

SEC Championship: #6 Georgia (11-1) vs #2 Auburn (10-2)

Saturday, 3:00 PM CT (4 PM ET), Atlanta, GA

Line: AUB -2.5

Auburn upended Georgia 40-17 a few weeks back and catapulted themselves into the CFP mix, and proceeeded to be glorified to high heaven by the CFP committee for beating two #1 teams in rapid succession. It's a feat to be applauded, but they should be ranked #4, not #2. Meanwhile, I can imagine Georgia wants to prove that loss was a fluke. I think this game gets decided by who can run the ball and stop the run better. Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham transferred from Baylor before this year's dumpster fire came about, and has energized the fanbase. I think being in Atlanta will amp up Georgia enough to get payback.

Georgia 31, Auburn 27 (Georgia beats the spread)

ACC Championship: #7 Miami (10-1) vs #1 Clemson (11-1)

Saturday, 7:00 PM CT (8 PM CT), Charlotte, NC

Line: CLEM -9.5

This line is disrespectful to Miami, if you ask me. Both Miami and Clemson have bad Friday losses on the road to teams that won't even go to a bowl game. Both teams have good wins (both beat Virginia Tech, Clemson beat Auburn, Miami beat Notre Dame). I can understand making Clemson the favorite based on track record, but I think losing to Pitt will make Miami refocus. I've been going back and forth on this game all week, and I feel like OU matches up way better with Miami than Clemson, but I don't think Miami's got enough on offense to keep up with Clemson.

Clemson 27, Miami 23 (Miami beats the spread)

Big Ten Championship: #8 Ohio State (10-2) vs #4 Wisconsin (12-0)

Saturday, 7:00 PM CT (8 PM CT), Indianapolis, IN

Line: OHST -6.5

The victims of Baker Mayfield's flag-planting have recovered nicely and still have an outside shot to sneak into the CFP. This will be Wisconsin's big test. If they can beat Ohio State, they'll finish the regular season undefeated and guarantee themselves a shot at the playoff. The Buckeyes are favored and have played a difficult schedule. I don't expect this to be a mismatch like when these teams played for a conference title three years ago and Ohio State blanked Wisconsin 59-0. I think it'll be a close game, but as long as Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett stays healthy and Urban Meyer remembers that he has running backs, I think Ohio State pulls it off.

Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 21 (Ohio State covers)

With all of these picks in mind, here's what I think we see on Sunday morning when the CFP announces their final rankings:

#1 Clemson vs #4 Alabama 

#2 Georgia vs #3 Oklahoma

If the games play out how I'd expect them to, I don't think the committee will want to send Ohio State to play Clemson considering how they got blanked 31-0 in the semifinal by Clemson last year, but they'd love a national championship rematch, even if it was in the semifinal. Though the committee might just send Oklahoma to play Clemson instead if they're that deadset on the Alabama-Clemson trilogy. I don't think Mayfield would mind one last crack at Clemson before he graduates and heads to the NFL. But we'll find out how right or wrong I am on Sunday. I'll try to have a column up to wrap up the week on Sunday afternoon, where I'm sure I will also complain about Billy Donovan, and possibly the Bucs' continued woes. Talk to you then.

-AJ