Smashing the Peake's Panic Button: What's Wrong with the Thunder?

Hi, gang. A quick look at the CFP rankings and some Thanksgiving picks before we get to the main conversation:

RANK	TEAM	RECORD	PREVIOUS
1	Alabama	11-0	1
2	Miami	10-0	3
3	Clemson	10-1	2
4	Oklahoma	10-1	4
5	Wisconsin	11-0	5
6	Auburn	9-2	6
7	Georgia	10-1	7
8	Notre Dame	9-2	8
9	Ohio State	9-2	9
10	Penn State	9-2	10
11	USC	10-2	11
12	TCU	9-2	12
13	Washington State	9-2	14
14	Mississippi State	8-3	16
15	UCF	10-0	15
16	Michigan State	8-3	17
17	Washington	9-2	18
18	LSU	8-3	20
19	Oklahoma State	8-3	13
20	Memphis	9-1	21
21	Stanford	8-3	22
22	Northwestern	8-3	23
23	Boise State	9-2	25
24	South Carolina	8-3	NR
25	Virginia Tech	8-3	NR

Basically the same as last week in the top 10, except that Miami rightfully jumped Clemson. Why Clemson is still ahead of the Sooners though, I have no earthly idea.

A quick update on Baker Mayfield: Sooners coach Lincoln Riley announced on Monday that Baker will not start on Saturday against West Virginia and won't be a team captain, though he will get to play on his last game in Norman. I personally thought that Mayfield's apology was enough, but ESPN's insistence on complaining about it, and The Oklahoman's Berry Tramel (their resident Abe Simpson) writing a sanctimonious column about it probably contributed to the decision.

Pictured above: Berry Tramel

In all honesty, the mini-benching was probably the right call. Baker Mayfield is probably still winning the Heisman, but if you're on camera all the time, you gotta watch out and not do things you'll regret people seeing. Kyler Murray gets the start and will probably play a series or two before Mayfield takes the field for the final time in Norman. 

What's wrong with the Thunder?

For the second game in a row, OKC had a 19-point lead on the road in the first half. Cue the Thunder's second half theme song this season:

OKC lost to the New Orleans Pelicans 114-107, even after Demarcus Cousins got ejected for elbowing Russell Westbrook in the face.

The Thunder are sitting at 7-9, and guess who comes to town tomorrow?

Well, for whatever it's worth, I don't think the Thunder will have a 20-point lead to blow against Golden State tomorrow night. I'm afraid it's more likely the Warriors will get a 20+ lead on OKC and just keep stunting, because apparently they feel like they still need to prove they're so much better than the Thunder anymore. Even if Russ, Melo and PG fire on all cylinders and play a perfect game, OKC could still lose, and the Thunder are about as far from perfect as humanly possible right now. I wouldn't be surprised if they exceed the 38-point beating that OU put on Kansas on Saturday, and ESPN will likely extol the virtues of Kevin Durant and how much better off he is at Golden State and how wonderfully amazing and wonderful the Warriors are... *screams profanities into pillow*

Anyway, there are some bright spots to the Thunder right now. They play as good as any team in the NBA in the first quarter, for whatever that's worth! I'm actually not being completely sarcastic here, because if they can do it for 12 minutes, they can do it for a full 48. Steven Adams has been rejuvenated by the extra space Paul George and Carmelo Anthony provide. Jerami Grant, Dakari Johnson and even Alex Abrines have all shown some improvement in spots. Paul George can be hot and cold sometimes, but he's been the most reliable of OKC's Big 3 so far. Easily the best shooter on the team right now.

Melo is frustrating at times, since he seems to have a habit of just shooting it when he runs out of room instead of looking for the open pass, but his defense has been a lot better than I would have expected coming from the Knicks, and he can throw some daggers when shots are falling.

Westbrook's play is a problem right now. It seems like he's trying to overcompensate from his MVP season last year by deferring to PG and Melo every chance he's got, and when things get out of hand, he and Melo both just start chucking it. That kind of worked last year for Russ, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't want to do that again. He looked dead tired by the time they reached the playoffs, and the Houston Rockets handled OKC in the first round in 5 games. 

My main gripe is honestly with coach Billy Donovan. I don't think he needs to be fired yet, but with a 7-9 record, and almost certainly 7-10 after tomorrow night, and seemingly no end to this slump in sight, Donovan needs to make some serious changes. I think he is trying to put in a system; the first quarters of games seem to show that, but it seems like when things get tough and the opposing team goes on a run, the team reverts back to their old isolation-ball habits, chucking up tough shots and not moving the ball nearly as well or as often as needed. Either Donovan isn't making the players stick to that system, or he's trying to and the players won't listen, or the players are trying to listen but just panic and make bad decisions. Coaching certainly isn't the only reason the Thunder are struggling, but Billy Donovan is not doing himself any favors.

I keep trying to tell myself, as many Thunder fans have so far this season, that it takes time for new pieces to fit, and I get that, but losing this many games in clutch situations and blowing this many leads starts to look like a horrible pattern. They need to break this fast. It probably won't happen tomorrow: the Warriors will probably put their foot on the throat and put the game far out of reach midway through the third quarter, though I'd love to be proven wrong. They play the Detroit Pistons on Friday night in OKC, and if they don't win that game, they'll be back to 4 games under .500. Not where you want to be at any point in the season. They still have time to try to fix this, but for a team (and a fanbase) that expected to contend with Golden State and see them in the Western Conference Finals again, it's starting to look like they may have to fight just to make the playoffs at all.

Meanwhile, in Tampa...

Mercifully, for my sanity, there's also a hockey game on tomorrow night I can watch if Warriors-Thunder goes sideways. The Lightning are still the best team in the Eastern Conference, and play a middle-of-the-road Chicago Blackhawks team tomorrow in Tampa. If the Thunder game goes as bad as I'm afraid it will, join me on NBCSN. It'll be a better way to start the Thanksgiving weekend than listening to ESPN verbally fellate KD, anyway.

The Bucs did get the W in Miami, their second straight with backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. They're at 4-6 now, and the playoffs are still a really, really, really long shot, but every team they play the last 6 games is a team above them in the NFC wild card standings, so they still have a little control over what happens. I think one more loss extinguishes those last faint hopes, but at least it proves the team hasn't quit on head coach Dirk Koetter.

The Bucs may have a way bigger problem on their hands, though. Starting QB Jameis Winston, still out with a shoulder injury, has been accused of groping a female Uber driver in Arizona in 2016. This comes after a rape allegation that Winston managed to get out of when he was still in college at Florida State. Given the way that sexual assault is being treated these days, if this allegation turns out to be true, the Bucs may have to move on from Jameis sooner than they had hoped. I'll have more to say about this on Friday after I do some more research, but this does not bode well. 

Picks!

Record (W-L): 4-2

Record (Spread): 2-4

The Thanksgiving and Black Friday games in college are bleh this year, but there's one Big 12 game early on Friday before I'll be back around to post again.

Baylor (1-10) at #12 TCU (9-2)

Friday, 11/24, 11:00 AM CT, FS1

Line: TCU -25.5

Baylor's a dumpster fire trying to run out the clock, but TCU is probably their biggest rival, and I'm sure they'd love to finish the season on a high note. TCU should cover easily, but if Baylor actually manages to win this, we'll have some tiebreakers to go over on Friday to see who OU will face in the Big 12 Championship Game.

TCU 41, Baylor 10 (TCU covers)

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Thanksgiving NFL Games

Minnesota Vikings (8-2) at Detroit Lions (6-4)

Thursday, 11/23, 11:00 AM CT, Fox

Line: MIN -3

Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

Thursday, 11/23, 3:30 PM CT, CBS

Line: LAC -1

New York Giants (2-8) at Washington "Fighting Dan Snyders" (4-6)

Thursday, 11/23, 7:30 PM CT, NBC

Line: WSH -7.5

I haven't been following the NFL all that closely this year aside from the Bucs, and I'll be spending most of the day hanging out with my dad, but NFL games are a tradition on Thanksgiving. I'll probably see bits and pieces of these games. I might actually watch Vikings-Lions since both teams are actually pretty solid and it's the early game, but I can take or leave the other two. I'm rooting for the road teams in all three games: the Bucs aren't catching Minnesota, the Chargers are in the AFC, and the Bucs actually have a victory tiebreaker over the Giants. Not sure it'll go that way, though. I'll leave my picks here if you'd like them.

Vikings 27, Lions 20 (MIN covers)

Chargers 24, Cowboys 21 (LAC covers)

DC 17, Giants 14 (NYG beats the spread)

Well, I've gotta get to bed. Have one more day of work this week before the holiday weekend. I hope everyone reading this has a happy Thanksgiving. I'm going to grill some steak with my dad, probably get some of his takes on Mayfield's benching, and see if he's enjoyed making fun of Oklahoma State fans. (He lives in Stillwater now but has been an OU fan since the 1970s. He's got some cool Switzer memories.) Eat lots of good food, and I'll talk to you cats on Friday.

-AJ